Crypto valuations, alt bleed, killer apps, & real on-chain users.
Crypto's dream era is over, but the era of cash flows is just starting.
𧔠Breakdown of this weekâs 1000x with @santiagoroel @AviFelman @jvb_xyz
Why Everything Outside BTC Is Struggling
†Valuations across altcoins canât be justified by current revenues
†The dream of future activity is no longer enough to support prices
†Even strong narratives (tokenization, banks using crypto rails) were fully priced in
Sentiment has shifted from belief to sobriety.
The Mirage of Altcoin Valuations
†Tokens donât go bankrupt, which kept dead projects inflated for years
†But that paradigm is breaking â insiders are selling, communities are quitting
†EOS delisting showed even ânext-genâ L1s arenât immune from reality
The spell keeping zombie tokens alive is finally fading.
Infrastructure Is Now Commoditized
†New chains are easy to launch and blockspace is cheap
†L2s cannibalize Ethereum economics, not strengthen them
†Infra â value capture unless users + cash flows show up
Owning rails isnât enough â you need actual traffic.
Why Real Users Matter More Than Tech
†Active on-chain users havenât grown meaningfully
†Speculative flows dominate and evaporate during macro tightening
†Without sticky usage, valuations collapse on contact with reality
Usage is the KPI that decides who survives.
Killer Apps, Not Killer Chains
†Like the internet era, value accrues to apps, not pipes
†Google/Amazon were built on commoditized infrastructure
†The investable upside is in products with real demand, not generic L1s
The era of infra-first investing is over.
Why Some Assets May Still Work
†Select DeFi protocols (Uniswap, Aave, Hyperliquid) have real fees
†Tokens tied to recurring activity may outperform during broad drawdowns
†Capital will migrate from vapor to fundamentals
Survival belongs to the apps that actually make money.
Bitcoin Stands Alone
†BTC now trades like a macro asset, not a tech bet
†Institutional flows + ETFs create structural demand
†In a world of stimulus + affordability crises, BTC is the cleanest hedge
BTC can rally even if alts stagnate.
What Real Flow Into Crypto Looks Like
†Institutions wonât buy gas tokens â they'll use stablecoins + rails
†Banks already deploying on public chains without needing the native asset
†Rails adoption â token appreciation unless tokens capture fees
Infrastructure adoption does not guarantee token inflows.
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