Spent some time thinking about this and Iâd take the other side of the bet for multiple reasons:
1. Most people arenât informed on Kinetiq despite Hyperliquidâs massive success.
2. Those aware donât know the correlation between kPoints and FDV. Iâve only seen one or two sheets with very conservative numbers.
3. Friction to use Pendle is still high, even among hyperEVM farmers.
4. If S1 is short, you want to buy YTs. If S1 is long but kPoints supply stays at 800k/w, you want to buy YTs early.
5. So far the @kinetiq_xyz team has only made smart moves. I doubt theyâll repeat Eigenlayerâs farming playbook and expect them to follow Ethenaâs instead.
Iâll keep buying kHYPE YTs until they stop being undervalued, using @quant_sheep excellent tool as reference.
Although Iâm insanely bullish on @kinetiq_xyz (as you can tell from my past article), it crossed my mind that stacking points via vanilla kHYPE/vkHYPE staking (obviously much less than YT) and then waiting for a post TGE entry might actually be the smarter play than farming YT if youâre really long-term bullish on Kinetiq.
I donât think anyone here needs to hear this, but YT goes to zero at maturity, and with TGE timing unknown, the opportunity cost is insane.
Nothing goes straight up (even $HYPE dropped from $30 -> <$10 before). Especially right after TGE, thereâs a high chance of volatility from airdrop dumps, which could hand you a very juicy and more reasonable entry.
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