恐懼貪婪指數:掉到10(極度恐懼),2018年熊市等級 1. 聯準會降息預期崩盤 12月降息機率從近100%掉到50%以下,美國通膨頑強+就業數據太好,Fed官員持續放鷹。高利率環境下,所有高風險資產(科技股+加密貨幣)都被拋售,BTC/ETH本質上是「高Beta版納斯達克」。 納斯達克漲 1% → BTC/ETH 平均漲 3~4% 納斯達克100 指數從11月高點跌約 6~8% 比特幣從12.6萬跌到9.1萬 → 跌幅約 28%(約納斯達克的 4 倍) 2. 比特幣/以太現貨ETF大出逃 11月以來美國BTC ETF連續淨流出(單週最高近10億美元),機構獲利了結+避險,直接抽走市場流動性。以太ETF也一樣慘。ETF本來是今年推升BTC到12.6萬美元的火車頭,現在變成「提款機」。 3. 高槓桿強平瀑布 10月高點後累積太多多頭槓桿,跌破10萬、9.5萬、9萬心理關口後,連鎖強平超過10億美元,放大跌幅。山寨幣更慘,SOL、XRP、DOGE等大跌10-20%。 4. AI/科技股泡沫擔憂外溢 Nvidia財報前科技股領跌(Nasdaq連續重挫),加密市場跟科技股相關係數高達0.9以上,一起被拋。市場現在把BTC當成「最純的風險資產」在賣。 5. 年底流動性季節性收緊+宏觀不確定 美國政府停擺餘波、川普貿易關稅不確定、中國經濟數據爛,全球美元流動性變緊,風險資產最先遭殃。
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