This week, Hyperliquid will unlock approximately $300 million worth of $HYPE on November 29, representing 2.66% of the total supply 👀
A🧵
1/ What happened?
Core contributors will begin receiving around $300M in tokens every month for the next 24 months.
The problem is that Hyperliquid currently buys back only ~$100M worth of tokens per month.
2/ This means more supply will hit the market than the protocol is buying back, creating a potential stress-test for price.
But here’s where fundamentals matter, and where sentiment and reality slightly diverge.
3/ Valuations are still extremely cheap
Currently, HYPE trades at a 7.6× circulating P/E and a 28× fully-diluted P/E.
28× might sound high… until you realise:
- HYPE won’t be fully diluted for years
- Robinhood trades at 44x-53x earnings, without aggressive buybacks, and
- HYPE is a Layer-1 gas asset, which historically commands a monetary premium (like SOL or ETH)
4/ Even if we take the extreme case and assume full dilution today
HYPE is still cheaper than traditional fintech multiples, and cheaper than where L1 assets typically trade relative to earnings.
5/ Is the unlock already priced in?
Very likely. And probably many, including team members, are hedged already.
The unlock schedule has been public for a long time,
and much of the market has stayed on the sidelines because of it. (Remember Arthur Hayes' exit?)
Even with the incoming supply, HYPE is still cheap on a ~10× adjusted P/E basis, without factoring in a monetary premium or forward growth.
6/ The market is currently pricing in the worst-case scenario (i.e., the team immediately selling all unlocked tokens).
But teams can stake, hold, or partially sell, not aggressively dump.
Having a supply of HYPE they can even just run a delta-neutral basis trade, and earn around 10% in passive income for the rest of their lives without selling a single token.
6.375
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